Three big questions raised by the sale of the green dial steel Nautilus for half a million US dollars. What are your answers?
Zach BlassThe watch community hit peak frustration last week, irked by the sale of a still-sealed, green dial steel Nautilus for $490,000 USD. Flipping is rife in this hobby, and many see it as the largest problem in watch collecting today – a practice that makes it harder to secure in-demand timepieces. Sure, it’s nothing new, but the sheer scale of this particular flip has set a new high watermark. The only real novelty here is that for the first time we are actually able to point the finger at an individual and cry foul. But last week, we saw an escalation of vitriol that waded into Game of Thrones territory, with people ready to strip the seller down and have him walk through King’s Landing naked with the angered community ringing the bell and yelling “shame”. Now that the dust has settled slightly, I think we need to get real for a second and calmly ask ourselves the important questions raised by this incident.
Question 1: Who wouldn’t have done it?
While many were eager to pick up our pitchforks and run the flipper monster out of the community, let’s take a deep breath and look inward. If I placed a sealed Nautilus in your hands, and told you you could do anything you wanted with it, do you really believe the thought of taking it to auction wouldn’t cross your mind? It’s easy for super-collectors, and wealthy watch lovers, to scoff at such behaviour, but for many of us, the premium potential of a sealed Nautilus sale, or auctioning, is too great to pass up.
The result of Gregory Pau’s sale is quite extraordinary, an amount most would not have predicted, but nonetheless when the catalogue was revealed it is fair to say we all knew it was going to fetch quite a premium. In Pau’s case, he earned approximately $460,000 USD over its retail price. Whatever remainder he took home after consignment fees, he could have paid all four years of my college tuition, bought property, or a plethora of things that are crucial to securing a better future for your life. If you are reading this and have children, outstanding medical bills, student loans, a wedding to fund, or a major home renovation or purchase, I would challenge you to honestly claim you would not have done the same thing if the opportunity presented itself.
Were I to obtain a Patek Philippe Nautilus at retail I would like to believe I would keep and wear the watch. I’ve always wanted one, and any time I have tried one on I never wanted to take it off. Being realistic, however, I know a time would come where I would likely sell the watch, even worn, to make a pretty penny – out of basic fiscal responsibility. But from the outset of my ownership, if you told me I could not just double my money, but receive a return 10-fold if I flipped it immediately, you bet your ass I am heading straight from the boutique to pass the watch over to Phillips to do what they do best. That kind of money is life-changing for most, and only a fraction of it would be needed to replace the gaps in your collection.
The issue isn’t so much that there are people taking an advantage of a real opportunity, but rather that the opportunity presents itself.
Who would have paid that much for it?
Personally, what angers me most here is who would pay that much for Nautilus? It’s a fantastic watch and its desirability is not entirely unfounded. But is it a half a million dollar watch? Absolutely not. So, why would anyone go to such lengths to purchase it for such a premium? This is hype economics at play. In the worldwide circle of concentrated wealth, there is a bit of competition and dick swinging – boys flexing their toys and believing such ownership of objects makes them better than others.
The result is indicative of the largest problem plaguing the watch community and industry since I’ve become an active part of it. There is a sense of tunnel vision when it comes to watches, with segments of popular culture, and even the watch community itself, putting select references on a pedestal. It is like a goldfish being released into a lake or estuary, it grows and grows in its newer and open environment to the point that its size actually destroys the ecosystem.
This moment really serves as a reminder that we, the watch community, represent a niche fraction of buyers around the world. While we certainly make efforts here at Time+Tide to grow the audience of our hobby, appealing to both newcomers and veteran collectors, there are people who will never care what caliber is inside the watch, what a co-axial escapement is, or even whether something is hand-made. These aspects are only understood by the mainstream if they tie into the hype and price of a watch, and why they make it “better” than something else. Whoever purchased this watch has either no knowledge or no discipline, I cannot imagine the green dial Nautilus will ever sell for more than he paid for it. So, it is not a particularly sound investment and I can only hope for the buyer’s sake that they really, really, love the watch and had no avenue to find one at retail. Ultimately it was a very expensive route for this individual to say they own this rare watch, but the joke is on them because those that really know watches won’t be impressed by the lengths they went to secure it.
Where to from here?
I don’t have a crystal ball, so to be honest I am left with more questions than answers. It’s clear that hype has got out of control, and that both in and out of the community we have created a beast too large to tame.
How do we, the official, and unofficial, ambassadors of the watch community work to grow greater awareness of other brands and references? How do we create more free will in watch purchases? How do we shift perspective from performance on the secondary market to performance on the wrist?
Eric Ku has said in the past that watch buyers vote with their chequebooks, but how do those with less buying power make an impact? It all seems a bit hopeless, like my noodle arms trying to win an arm-wrestling match with Arnold Schwarzenegger. But we have to acknowledge we are a sizeable – and vocal – part of this ecosystem, and that it is up to us to try and figure out how to present alternatives to the unobtanium that are less about compromise but more about opportunity.
Why wait for a Patek Philippe Nautilus when you can for a Czapek Antarctique or Urban Jürgensen One? Why beg for a Rolex Daytona when you can opt for a more technically impressive Zenith Chronomaster Sport? It is a tall task, but if we, the community, find a way to make understand others why we love a brand, beyond its name and status, then perhaps we will have a bit of a course correction that uplifts the industry and community as a whole.
Do you have any thoughts on where the industry and community goes from here? Let me know at [email protected]