OPINION: Are publications hyping up “collapsing” watch prices?

Zach Blass

For the last month every publication under the sun has seen a traffic gold-mine in the purported “collapse” in secondary pricing for “hype” watches from Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe among others. Even we tackled the subject with our own reader-alluring doom and gloom headline. But, after fully digesting the situation, I am beginning to wonder if these price dips even really matter.

Any publication that tackles the watch market has ran a story titled something to the effect of The Crypto Collapse is ‘Flooding the Market’ with Rolex and Patek Philippe Watches or Your Rolex Suddenly Might Be Worth Less Than You Think. And sure to highly wealthy Wall Street Journal readers or disingenuous watch investors, this may have some cause for pause. But, for the remaining 99%, the only cause for intrigue is really whether or not the market shake-up will lead to easier access to these models. My personal take: it absolutely does not.

Anecdotally, we have seen outlier instances where a forum-poster shares their experience finding a steel Rolex more easily and quickly at retail. But, I suspect in major markets, such as New York City where I live, nothing much has really changed on that front. You still need substantial purchase history, or unheard of luck, to walk away with your wallet unscathed to score something like a steel professional Rolex models at retail. Sorry folks, a Daytona remains just as much of a pipe dream as it was prior to the crash. On the secondary front, even if there is an increase of currently running listings for these models on Chrono24 and other marketplaces it does not change the fact they are being sold for undesirable premiums in regard to the average buyer.

From an investment standpoint, sure we have seen prices drop by tens of percents in certain instances. A ‘crash’ or a ‘collapse’, however, is very different from a correction in my opinion. These drops were long overdue in the eyes of many, and perhaps the crypto crash was the igniting spark. But, ultimately prices are still obscene for a Patek Philippe Nautilus ref. 5711/1A for example. Yes, the market price has reportedly dropped from its peak of  $237,700 USD in 2022 to $192,800 USD as of early July according to Bloomberg. At the end of the day though, this is a watch that, prior to its discontinuation, retailed for just over $30K. Alleged eight-year waitlists for the Nautilus certainly gave cause for a secondary premium, but whether above or below $200K is it not an absolutely insane price to pay for what is ultimately a steel sports watch? Albeit a very well made one.

If secondary pricing is tied to cryptocurrency value, which there appears to be a significant relation, while I am no economist it doesn’t take a masters degree to recognise how volatile crypto is. So, my takeaway in all this chaos: crypto is volatile, therefore secondary pricing is volatile, and for 99% of watch buyers, who were never in the game to begin with, this does not really mean anything.