Morgan Stanley’s latest data suggests a more stable secondary market. How is that beneficial to the watch community?

Andrew O'Connor

Anyone who has been following watches since the global pandemic has witnessed the massive boom the watch industry has seen on all fronts. Retailers of new watches have seen increased business, and secondary market prices have gone to the moon for super-desirable watches, taking other watches along for the ride upwards. Brands have responded in many ways, by raising prices, offering more premium offerings, and launching their own certified pre-owned programs. In 2026, things have levelled off, but the watch market seems to have witnessed a more widespread change.

The big picture

Morgan Stanley, in collaboration with Watch Charts, recently published a report focused on the secondary market, tracking how brands perform compared to their original retail price. Morgan Stanley’s coverage tracked a total of 35 brands, primarily focused on the brands within Richemont, Swatch Group, and LVMH, along with the big independent players like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet.

The big sweeping takeaways indicate that while things have levelled off, the song remains the same, as watches from ‘blue chip’ brands like AP, Patek and Rolex are still trading over retail. While prices fell by 10.7% in 2023 and by 6.1% in 2024, there was 4.9% increase in 2025 across the marketplace. Patek Philippe’s secondary market performance rose by 12.1% in year-over-year performance in 2025, with Rolex tracking at 4.6%, and Audemars Piguet at 1%.

Cartier, Tudor, Omega, and even Certina saw an increase in secondary market pricing as well in 2025. Year-over-year performance for the large groups overall is less favourable, with Swatch Group seeing a decrease in secondary market performance by 1.5%, Richemont Group by 5.3%, and LVMH by 6.3%, but a few enthusiast and personal favourite brands have some interesting numbers to report.

The case for a silver lining

In order to narrow the scope of focus, honing in on a few of my favourite large brands displays what I think is an interesting change in the secondary market, and one that I think is largely driven by enthusiasts. Blancpain, TAG Heuer, and Longines each saw quarter-over-quarter increases in Q4 of 2025. Longines’s secondary market prices increased by 4.9%, Blancpain’s by 1.4%, and TAG Heuer’s by 1.1%. An expanding enthusiast base, recent releases, and buyers looking for more diverse options play a role in this upward movement, I believe.

Another consequence of the pandemic was that watch collecting witnessed a substantial increase in interest. While some were only in it for the potential investment upside and have since left, many came to speculate but stayed for at least some of the “right” reasons. The broader public started paying more attention to blue-chip brands, but as some of them gained more knowledge about watches, they likely began to learn about other facets of the watch industry, expanding into vintage watches and learning about other brands, ranging from big group brands to micro and independent brands.

I think this is especially true of aspiring collectors with a larger budget: determined to buy a big-ticket timepiece, they may have walked into a boutique wanting a Submariner, but potentially walked out with a Fifty Fathoms due to availability. If they enjoy their experience past the initial disappointment of not getting their first choice, buyers will likely develop an interest in other brands and models, looking to expand their collection and overall interactions with the many facets of the watch enthusiasts community.

Why Blancpain, Longines and TAG Heuer are significant

2025 overall seemed to be a good year for new watch releases. Recent articles I have written for Time+Tide have outlined my change of perspective for TAG Heuer and my appreciation for Blancpain. 2025 saw new tech-forward releases from TAG Heuer, and solid refreshes of popular models from Blancpain. One brand I haven’t had the opportunity to write about for T+T yet, but that I am a big fan of, is Longines. The renewed Spirit collection displayed a great deal of refinement from Longines and solidified a trajectory of highly compelling releases from the brand. TAG Heuer’s Glassbox models and the already mentioned carbon hairspring developments likely solidified an overall positive enthusiast interest in the brand. While Blancpain’s pricing can be quite punchy, the new Fifty Fathoms models in 38mm landed well with enthusiasts, and the new Villeret models harkened back to releases from the re-launch of the brand in the 1980’s.

With positive enthusiast reception, even if we aren’t adding all of these models to our collections, it does create a positive feedback loop. Many potential buyers, enthusiasts or not, are searching online to determine whether a watch is a good model to consider, likely stumbling upon watch-related subreddits or forums where people discuss new releases. If enthusiasts have positive things to say, it will likely lead to sales to both die-hard collectors and general consumers.

As I mentioned earlier, it is not uncommon to hear that someone will set out to purchase a desirable model, but then, in the frustration of dealing with limited availability and allocation games, turn their attention to other possibilities. With the Submariner currently retailing US$10,050, and secondary prices sitting between US$12,000-16,000, landing on a Bathyscaphe, which currently retails for US$13,700 new, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. I can see the same happening for Daytona fans who are racing enthusiasts potentially landing on a Carrera or Monaco, especially if the retail price of a Daytona, let alone the retail availability, is a difficult hurdle to clear.

Longines’ Spirit collection, especially the Spirit Zulu Time and the recent Flyback Chronograph, represents great value. Those looking for a great watch from a large brand at a reasonable price will likely be very pleased with just about any model from Longines, especially as many brands move upmarket (including Longines, truth be told). Even if watch buyers are not able to land their first choice, those looking to expand their experience and knowledge in the watch world will likely look for other watches that offer a generally positive consumer experience.

The numbers don’t lie: where the market is directing its attention

While all this is informed speculation on my part, there appear to be some numbers to back up my thoughts. Morgan Stanley, in addition to tracking year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter performance, also published the weight of each model by brand that contributes to the brands’ secondary market performance, dating back to 2023.

Blancpain’s numbers seem predictable in 2023, with the top ten models each being a variation of the Fifty Fathoms. In 2024, the annual calendar GMT Villeret enters the number 8 spot, and 2025 and early reporting for 2026 show the arrival of more Villeret and Air Command models. While people likely arrived at Blancpain for the Fifty Fathoms, it seems that interest is spreading to other models.

TAG Heuer’s 2023 list is dominated by Monaco models, with complicated Carreras making an appearance as well. The progression from 2023 to 2026 sees the addition of more Carrera and Formula 1 models in the top 10. What I find particularly interesting is that the Glassbox models are hardly represented in the top 10, with the exception being the Skipper making its way to number 10 in 2026.

The Carrera models making up the weight of TAG Heuer’s secondary market reporting are older models, including the discontinued Carrera Tourbillon that was first introduced during Jean-Claude Biver’s time as CEO of TAG Heuer. This suggests to me that while enthusiasts are vocally enthusiastic about the newer, sleeker Carrera models, those spending money still have an interest in the larger, complicated, and tech-y looking models of the recent past.

The models that make up Longines ‘ top-performing models on the secondary market really surprised me. Longines top-performing model is a Master Collection Moonphase Triple-Calendar Chronograph on a leather strap. While the rest of the list is dominated by other Master Collection and Heritage models, it is only within the last two years (2025 and 2026) that we see a more prominent representation of the Spirit collection (particularly the Zulu Time).

This seemingly indicates to me where the broader market sees value. Few brands are currently offering a full-calendar display with a chronograph, despite the proliferation of the Valjoux 7751 and its variations within the Swatch Group. A dressy, complicated model may just be what blossoming watch enthusiasts are looking for, as the dressy appearance lends itself to versatility, while the complications invite owner engagement. With this model making a prominent representation for Longines in this report, maybe the broader public is interested and ready for accessible complex calendars.

Closing thoughts

While recent news headlines for the broader watch industry focus on decreased sales and a tougher market climate, taking a deeper dive seems to indicate that the watch industry is well-positioned for long-term success. I think that if brands continue to listen to watch collectors and develop models that manage a happy middle ground between mainstream commerciality and gaining enthusiast fervour, it will benefit us all. As brands continue to develop broader awareness and overall positive sentiments, secondary market performance will increase, thus increasing stability.

While I’m sure most brands still won’t be able to achieve sustained resale values above retail, a consistent secondary market makes it easier for watch buyers to make decisions. If you are aware of how much a watch will depreciate between new and used, you can buy accordingly to your budget, and feel confident in your decision. Of course, there will be outliers, but if the opportunity is there to foster a more diverse collector community (both in terms of people and the watches they are buying), I’m here for it.